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Prediction for CME (2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-08-30T20:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40987/-1
CME Note: Wide CME observed first by STEREO A COR2 at 2025-08-30T20:09Z. Updated observations in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 from preliminary analysis where they were not included due to field-of-view with GOES CCOR-1 and a downlink gap resuming at 2025-08-30T21:20Z for SOHO LASCO. The source for this CME is a long duration M2.7 class flare from AR 14199 (N03E13) which began at 2025-08-30T19:11Z and peaked at 2025-08-30T20:02Z, viewed well in SDO AIA 131. Wide field line opening, dimming, and an EUV wave are observed in SDO AIA 131/171/193/211 and GOES SUVI 284. Brightening as a double ribbon flare and post-eruptive arcade observed in SDO AIA 131/171/193/211/304 and GOES SUVI 304. Additionally observed from STEREO A EUVI 195 as field line opening and dimming, and STEREO A EUVI 304 as brightening, around N03E60 as viewed from STEREO A. Arrival: Significant shock arrival with magnetic field rapidly increasing from 5 nT to 26 nT over several minutes near 2025-09-01T20:26Z in association with the arrival of CMEs: 2025-08-30T00:23Z and halo CME 2025-08-30T20:09Z. Wind speeds rapidly increase from 390 km/s to 675 km/s, and temperature rapidly increases from 80,000 Kelvin to over 1 million Kelvin following the arrival.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-09-01T20:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-09-01T20:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2025 Aug 31 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity increased to moderate levels (R1-Minor). Region 4197
(S18W17, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced an M1.3 flare at 30/1409 UTC and an
M1.2 flare at 30/1559 UTC. This region was mostly stable with some minor
decay noted in the intermediate spot area. Region 4199 (N04W03,
Cai/beta) produced the largest flare of the period, a long-duration M2.7
flare at 30/2002 UTC. The remaining regions were stable.

An asymmetric full-halo CME associated with the long-duration M2.7 flare
at 30/2002 UTC from AR4199 was first observed in LASCO C3 imagery at
~30/2030 UTC. Analysis suggests this CME will arrive during the latter
half of 01 Sep.

Lead Time: 44.23 hour(s)
Difference: 0.43 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2025-08-31T00:12Z

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